Risk Assessment Pearls

“We tend to over-estimate the probability of something happening if the outcomes are severe,” David Budescu

“We tend to under-estimate the likelihood of events with less severe outcomes,” David Budescu

Peer Review 101

Is the information NEW?

• Does it contribute original findings, or shed new light on a question that has been previously studies?

Is the information TRUE?

• Does the data presented appear to meet basic standards of reliability and validity?
• Are the methods sufficiently described to allow such judgement to be made?

General factors to consider:

• Importance the scientific questions under consideration
• Clear statement of objectives
• Is length of manuscript appropriate to the complexity of the topic?
• Clarity of writing

Le Jardin

公园 （高行健译）

一千年一万年
也难以诉说尽
这瞬间的永恒
你吻了我
我吻了你
在冬日，朦胧的清晨
清晨在蒙苏利公园
公园在巴黎
巴黎是地上一座城
地球是天上一颗星

Le Jardin

Des milliers et des milliers d’années
Ne sauraient pas suffire
Pour dire
La petite seconde d’éternité
Où tu m’as embrassé
Où je t’ai embrassée
Un matin dans la lumière de l’hiver
Au parc Montsouris à Paris
A Paris
Sur la terre
La terre qui est un astre .

I Will Follow You Into The Dark

I Will Follow You Into The Dark [Death Cab for Cutie]

Love of mine some day you will die
But I’ll be close behind
I’ll follow you into the dark

No blinding light or tunnels to gates of white
Just our hands clasped so tight
Waiting for the hint of a spark
If Heaven and Hell decide
That they both are satisfied
Illuminate the NOs on their vacancy signs

If there’s no one beside you
When your soul embarks
Then I’ll follow you into the dark

In Catholic school as vicious as Roman rule
I got my knuckles bruised by a lady in black
And I held my tongue as she told me
“Son fear is the heart of love”
So I never went back

If Heaven and Hell decide
That they both are satisfied
Illuminate the NOs on their vacancy signs

If there’s no one beside you
When your soul embarks
Then I’ll follow you into the dark

You and me have seen everything to see
From Bangkok to Calgary
And the soles of your shoes are all worn down
The time for sleep is now
It’s nothing to cry about
Cause we’ll hold each other soon
The blackest of rooms

If Heaven and Hell decide
That they both are satisfied
Illuminate the NOs on their vacancy signs

If there’s no one beside you
When your soul embarks
Then I’ll follow you into the dark
Then I’ll follow you into the dark

River

River [Joni Mitchell]

Its coming on christmas
Theyre cutting down trees
Theyre putting up reindeer
And singing songs of joy and peace
Oh I wish I had a river
I could skate away on
But it dont snow here
It stays pretty green
Im going to make a lot of money
Then Im going to quit this crazy scene
I wish I had a river
I could skate away on
I wish I had a river so long
I would teach my feet to fly
Oh I wish I had a river
I could skate away on
I made my baby cry

He tried hard to help me
You know, he put me at ease
And he loved me so naughty
Made me weak in the knees
Oh I wish I had a river
I could skate away on
Im so hard to handle
Im selfish and Im sad
Now Ive gone and lost the best baby
That I ever had
Oh I wish I had a river
I could skate away on
I wish I had a river so long
I would teach my feet to fly
Oh I wish I had a river
I made my baby say goodbye

Its coming on christmas
Theyre cutting down trees
Theyre putting up reindeer
And singing songs of joy and peace
I wish I had a river
I could skate away on

A More Perfect Union, A More Perfect Taiwan

“We the People, in order to form a more perfect union.”

寫給台灣的情書：更美好的台灣。

小英的故事。

Do Not Let Me Hear of the Wisdom of Old Men

DO NOT LET ME HEAR

Of the wisdom of old men, but rather of their folly,

Their fear of fear and frenzy, their fear of possession,

Of belonging to another, or to others, or to God.

The only wisdom we can hope to acquire

Is the wisdom of humility: humility is endless.

East Coker II, Four Quartets by T. S. Eliot

‘I don’t know what my perfect last half day would be, but I would like to be completely conscious for most of it. I’ve experienced many things in the past seventy-plus years. I would like to remember a few poems. Right now the candidate is “East Coker“,‘ Kenaburo Oe (2007)

New Soul

腹語術

用心靈勾引

通常我們是不置一詞的

但跟著移動時

在一些氛圍下相信的

心靈勾引，是的

在自助洗衣店。

有時候他們播古典音樂

打混過去